Cook in or dine out this Thanksgiving? New report crunches the numbers

Costs are up everywhere, but does it make more sense to prepare your Thanksgiving meal or eat out?

Wells Fargo & Co. looked into it and found that while dining out can be costly, it might be a better value this year.

“Rising commodity costs impact grocery stores more directly than restaurants,” the report said. “The price of a meal at a restaurant includes factors such as overhead and labor, but commodity ingredients are a smaller percentage of a restaurant’s total costs. However, restaurant owners have needed to increase menu prices more often and at a higher percentage this year to absorb those commodity costs.”

For instance, the cost of food away from home has increased 5.8 percent from last November, according to the Consumer Price Index. But a trip to the grocery store could cost you 9.8 percent more.

“That narrowing of the gap means some Thanksgiving dishes at your favorite restaurant are closer in price to your food at home, which could save you time and energy,” the report said. “In other words, you could spend about the same on a dish at a restaurant as you would preparing it at home.”

Weather and other forces affected food costs this year, the reported continued.

“A cool spring in Idaho and Washington delayed potato and onion crops. In California, hotter temperatures and drought shrunk the yield of celery, carrot and onion crops,” it said. “Also, cranberry sauce, a staple of the holiday meal, will cost more on grocery store shelves due to cranberry producers that faced rising input costs.”

Key items driving the increased price for your Thanksgiving meal include eggs up 32.5 percent, butter up 25.8 percent and flour up 17.1 percent.

Good news if you go healthy: Fruits and vegetables are up only 7.3 percent.

Talking turkey

And then there’s the star of the meal, which also hasn’t escaped its own cost increases.

Turkey is forecasted to be 23 percent higher in price than last year — and the turkeys themselves are more limited because of the continued impact of avian influenza.

“Turkey prices jumped after the bird flu wiped out flocks earlier this year. While inventory has rebounded, the cost per pound will be higher,” the report said. “You’ll still find turkey at the grocery store, but you may want to shop early for the best selection of brands and sizes. While turkey will be more expensive this year, it’s still a great value for feeding many guests, compared to other protein options.”

Your best choice for a side this year: Sweet potatoes. The crop of regular potatoes is smaller than last year because of weather. So you’ll pay more for mashed potatoes.

“Sweet potatoes have no relation to white potatoes, and they require different growing conditions,” the report said. “Sweet potatoes are grown in North Carolina and the Southeast. While input costs are rising, the surplus of sweet potato may be a better option for the budget-friendly consumer this year. For all those sweet potato pie lovers out there, this is truly your year to shine.”