Will winter now start feeling like winter? Here’s the latest outlook

There’s a friendly pool at the Sioux Falls office of the National Weather Service to guess the date of the city’s first measurable snowfall.

And there’s yet to be a winner.

“We keep backing it up, and everyone keeps guessing,” meteorologist in charge Todd Heitkamp said.

This week will bring the first stretch of temperatures closer to normal, representing a drop of 20 to 30 degrees over some record highs in the 60s to end November and start December.

With only a trace of snow in November, “a lot of people think that shortens winter dramatically,” Heitkamp said. “There have been many years when we’ve had a lot of snow in October.”

The 30-day outlook for December calls for above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation, he added.

“Even with a cold snap, we’re not talking about well-below-normal temperatures.”

White Christmas?

Look farther into the month, though, and Heitkamp is willing to speculate things might change.

“I think it’s going to be a white Christmas,” he said. “The closer we get, the odds are against that, but I think the weather pattern is shifting a bit. We’ll have a better chance of snow in the next few weeks.”

But don’t think you’re necessarily going to spend the holiday shoveling.

“I wouldn’t say there would be enough to break out the sled,” Heitkamp said. “But we still have a long ways to go.”

Beyond that

The outlook for January and February calls for normal or below-normal temperatures and normal precipitation, though March could start a warm-up again.

“I think we’ll still have our bouts of Old Man Winter this year,” Heitkamp said. “There’s no doubt about that.”