Remember flu season? It’s basically gone this year

February typically means we’re dealing with the flu.

For the past several years, influenza cases have peaked in South Dakota in the third week of February.

But if that’s the case this year, the “peak” will be more like a blip. If that.

This time in 2020, there were 14,776 influenza cases in the state.

This time in 2019, there were 9,559 cases.

OK, so, as of last week, here’s how many confirmed cases we’ve had so far this season:

Nineteen.

Right. 1-9.

There were two new confirmed cases in the past reporting week, which ended Jan. 23.

“Looking at historical numbers, it really dwarfs,” said Dr. Chad Thury, a family medicine physician and Avera’s regional director of clinical quality.

“Usually as we get into January and certainly into February, when patients come in for upper respiratory and flulike symptoms, when we test, we’re getting 20 to 30 percent of patients positive for influenza. And now, our positivity rate is less than 1 percent. So it just goes to show we’re not seeing patients in the clinic for it, and when we do see patients, it’s not influenza.”

Sanford Health had two positive cases last week across its whole system, which includes parts of  South Dakota, North Dakota and Minnesota.

“The week before we had zero,” said Dr. Jeremy Cauwels, chief physician at Sanford Health.

“It’s remarkably low. Typically, outpatients would be in the hundreds. We would be talking a percent positivity … at the highest part of the peak at 35 percent positive, and now we’re less than 1 percent.”

Barely any hospitalizations.

Statewide, six people have been hospitalized for influenza this season. Two have died.

Compare that to the 2018-19 season: 653 hospitalizations and 43 deaths.

Sanford has had one patient hospitalized in the past six months.

“It’s an outstandingly low number,” Cauwels said.

Here’s a more detailed look at how things stood as of last week:

What’s happening

The massive drop in influenza cases was predicted in part by what happened in the Southern Hemisphere last year.

“They effectively had no influenza in August whatsoever,” Cauwels said. “It was vanishingly low, and that’s what we’re seeing in the U.S. so far this flu season.”

There are a few things that likely are happening. First, the obvious: COVID-19 preventative measures, including limiting gatherings, frequent hand-washing and wearing masks, also help stop influenza from spreading. That includes schools, where influenza often spreads but where more safeguards are in place because of the pandemic.

“The mitigation things we’re doing for COVID are greatly impacting what we’re seeing with influenza,” Thury said.

And while influenza spreads somewhat easily, COVID-19 spreads about twice as fast.

People also were good about getting vaccinations for influenza this year, both health systems said.

“We got to more than 60 percent vaccinated, we believe, and did so remarkably sooner than years past,” Cauwels said. “Almost all flu shots were administered by the end of November.”

And finally – you can probably relate to this – fewer people are traveling. That means fewer chances to catch influenza elsewhere and bring it home.

What to know

Influenza can spread at least into April, so we’re not totally done yet.

There also aren’t necessarily a lot of tests being done for it. In some cases, there are combination tests that can check for COVID-19 and influenza. But in other cases, if it wouldn’t change the course of treatment, an influenza test might not be done once COVID-19 is ruled out.

But the percent positive and the nearly total lack of hospitalizations combine to indicate the presence of influenza likely is much less than average.

That doesn’t mean you won’t still get sick with something else, of course.

“RSV (respiratory syncytial virus) is another common one this time of year,” Thury said. “And even RSV numbers are down compared to what they historically are.”