How long will colder-than-average temperatures last? Likely at least through May

The trend of cooler-than-average weather is expected to continue in May.

That’s according to the monthly outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center.

“The last three months have been colder than average across South Dakota,” Laura Edwards, South Dakota State University Extension state climatologist, said in a statement. “The outlook for May indicates that we are likely to continue with cooler temperatures as compared to normal, at least for northern South Dakota.”

Edwards added that north-central and northeastern South Dakota were more than 10 degrees below average for the past 30 days, with some confidence that this pattern will continue at least into early May. Most of the rest of the state has been cooler than average in the past 30 days as well, but not as extreme as some northern areas have been.

The temperature outlook for May through July does not indicate consistent warm or cool weather, which may indicate swings between warm and cool periods throughout the growing season, she said.

Spring and summer precipitation remains a challenge to forecasters this year, with a lot of uncertainty in the months ahead, the outlook said.

From mid-March to mid-April, an area from the southwest to northeast has measured more than the typical amount of precipitation for this time of year. Most of the precipitation fell as snow, with some late snowstorms that affected travel and delayed or disrupted spring farming and ranching activities. The northwest and southeast, however, have been drier than average in what is typically a wet time of year.

“Typically, we are increasing precipitation in April, leading up to the months of May and June, which together make up 40 percent or more of our annual precipitation,” Edwards said. “This is not only a time for yards and gardens to begin greening up, but it is also essential moisture for grasslands, range and forage and to refill stock ponds for livestock.”

Edwards added that even after a wet and snowy winter, soil can dry out quickly in the spring season once crops are established and vegetation comes out of dormancy.

The precipitation outlook for May shows a lot of uncertainty. The NOAA report shows equal chances of getting more or less precipitation than usual.

May can still bring some timely rainfall, Edwards noted. In combination with the cooler outlook, field and pastures have an opportunity to hold on to the soil moisture that was gained in the spring snowmelt season.

Impacts on agriculture

Cool air temperatures have kept soil temperatures lower than typical. The snowmelt season started a couple of weeks later than usual this spring. According to the state’s report, a brief warmup in mid-April provided some opportunity for planting of early spring crops like oats and other small grains in the south, but the north/northeast region is still struggling to see the drier and warmer soil conditions that are required for spring planting. Planting progress for summer crops like corn and soybeans is falling behind the average dates.

“Cool, muddy conditions can also cause issues for livestock. Calving conditions have not been optimal this year with extended cold and snowy periods and the continued cool temperatures and late-season snowmelt,” the report said.

“River and overland flooding has been noted in eastern South Dakota. The Big Sioux River has receded from its peak after Easter. The James River is still rising as snowmelt continues upstream in North Dakota. “